Predicting the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran

Document Type : Research articles

Authors

• Masoud Yousefi ¹
• Seyyed Saeed Hosseinian Yousefkhani ²
• Anooshe Kafash ³
• Eskandar Rastegar Pouyani ⁴

¹ Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran

² Department of Animal Science, School of Biology, Damghan University, Damghan, Iran.

³ Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran.

⁴ Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Hakim Sabzevari University.

10.22067/ijab.2023.84109.1061

Abstract

Climate change is an important growing threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Previous studies have shown that climate change will negatively influence on Iran’s biodiversity. Reptiles are among the most vulnerable group to climate change. Until now, more than 80 snake species have been recorded in Iran in which 16 are terrestrial venomous. In the present study, we predicted the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran. We applied an ensemble approach, using five distribution modeling methods (Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Additive Models, Generalized Boosted Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling and Random Forest) to predict the impacts of climate change on distribution pattern of the genus. We also estimated protected areas coverage for the suitable habitat of the genus under current and future climatic conditions. We found that the genus will lose 11% of its suitable habitat under the worst-case scenario (2071-2100SSP585). Results also showed that only around 8% of the genus suitable habitat is covered by protected areas under current and future climatic conditions. Stable suitable but not protected habitats have high priority for conservation of the genus in Iran.

Keywords

• Macrovipera lebetina
• Macrovipera razii
• Distribution
• Conservation
• Iran

Main Subjects

• Ecology
• Zoogeography

---

References

Ahmadi, M., Hemami, M.R, Kaboli, M., Malekian, M., Zimmermann, N.E., 2019. Extinction risks of a
Mediterranean neo-endemism complex of mountain vipers triggered by climate change. Scientific Reports
9, 6332.
Araújo, M.B., New, M., 2007. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecology and
Evolution 22, 42–47.
Dehghani, R., Fathi, B., Panjeh Shahi, M., Jazayeri, M. 2014. Ten years of snakebites in Iran. Toxicon 90,
291–298
Ebrahimi, E., Sayahnia, R., Ranjbaran, Y., Vaissi, S., Ahmadzadeh, F. 2021. Dynamics of threatened
mammalian distribution in Iran’s protected areas under climate change. Mammalian Biology, 101, 759-
774.
Esmaeili, H.R., Gholamhosseini, A., Mohammadian-kalat, T., Aliabadian, M., 2018. Predicted changes in
climatic niche of Alburnus species (Teleostei: Cyprinidae) in Iran until 2050. Turkish Journal of Fisheries
and Aquatic Sciences 18, 995-1003.
Fielding, A.H., Bell, J.F., 1997. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in
conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation 24, 38–49.
Guisan, A., Thuiller, W., Zimmermann, N.E., 2017. Habitat suitability and distribution models: with
applications in R. Cambridge University Press.
Hannah, L. 2015. Climate Change Biology 2nd edn. Academic Press, Cambridge.
162 IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ANIMAL BIOSYSTEMATICS Vol.19, No.2
Hijmans, R.J., 2017. raster: geographic data analysis and modeling. R package version 2.6-7.
https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=raster.
Hosseinian Yousefkhani, S.S., Aliabadian, M., Rastegar-Pouyani, E., Darvish, J. 2017. Predicting the
impact of climate change on the distribution pattern of Agamura persica (Dumeril, 1856) (Squamata:
Gekkonidae) in Iran. Belgian Journal of Zoology 147, 137–142.
Jarvis, A., H.I., Reuter, A. Nelson, and E. Guevara. 2008. Hole-filled SRTM for the globe Version 4.
Available from the CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90m Database. https://srtm.csi.cgiar.org.
Kafash, A., Ashrafi, S., Ohler, A., Yousefi, M., Malakoutikhah, Sh., Koehler, G., Schmidt, B.R., 2018.
Climate change produces winners and losers: differential responses of amphibians in mountain forests of
the Near East. Global Ecology Conservation 16, e00471.
Kafash, A., Ashrafi, S., Yousefi, M., 2021. Distribution of Pipistrellus pipistrellus (Schreber, 1774) under
the climate change: Identifying climate refugia and assessing protected areas effectiveness. Journal of
Animal Research 34, 67-78.
Kafash, A., Kaboli, M., Köhler, G., Yousefi, M., Asadi, A., 2016. Ensemble distribution modeling of the
Mesopotamian spiny-tailed lizard (Saara loricata) in Iran. An insight into the impact of climate change.
Turkish Journal of Zoology 40, 262–271.
Karger, D.N., Conrad, O., Bohner, J., 2017. Climatologies at high resolution for the earth land surface
areas. Scientific Data 4, 170122.
Malakoutikhah, S., Fakheran, S., Hemami, M‐R., Tarkesh, M., Senn, J., 2020. Assessing future
distribution, suitability of corridors and efficiency of protected areas to conserve vulnerable ungulates
under climate change. Diversity and Distribution, 26, 1383-1396.
Malekian, M., Sadeghi, M., 2020. Predicting impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of
two interacting species in the forests of western Iran. Meteorological Applications, 27, e1800.
Maritz, B., J. Penner, M. Martins, J. Crnobrnja-Isailović, S. Spear, L.R. V. Alencar, J. Sigala-Rodriguez,
K. Messenger, R. W. Clark, P. Soorae, Luiselli, L., Jenkins, C., Greene, H.W., 2016. Identifying global
priorities for the conservation of vipers. Biological Conservation 204, 94-102.
Nori, J., Carrasco, P.A., Leynaud, G.C., 2014. Venomous snakes and climate change: ophidism as a
dynamic problem. Climatic Change 122, 67–80.
Oraie, H. 2020. Genetic evidence for occurrence of Macrovipera razii (Squamata, Viperidae) in the
central Zagros region, Iran. Herpetozoa 33, 27-30.
Oraie, H., E. Rastegar-Pouyani, A. Khosravani, N. Moradi, A. Akbari, M. E. Sehhatisabet, S. Shafiei,
Stümpel, N., Joger, U. 2018. Molecular and morphological analyses have revealed a new species of blunt-
nosed viper of the genus Macrovipera in Iran. Salamandra 54, 233-248.
Penman, T.D., Pike, D.A., Webb, J.K., Shine, R. 2010. Predicting the impact of climate change on
Australia’s most endangered snake, Hoplocephalus bungaroides. Diversity and Distributions 16, 109-
118.
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DISTRIBUTION OF MACROVIPERA 163
Pintor, A. F. V., N. Ray, J. Longbottom, C. A. Bravo-Vega, M. Yousefi, K. A. Murray, Ediriweera D.S.,
Diggle, P.J. 2021. Addressing the global snakebite crisis with geo-spatial analyses – Recent advances and
future direction. Toxicon: X 11, 100076.
Quinn, G.P., Keough, M.J., 2002. Experimental designs and data analysis for biologists. Cambridge
University Press; Cambridge, UK.
R Core Team, 2020. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. https://www.R-
project.org/.
Rahimi, J., Malekian, A., Khalili, A. 2019. Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current
knowledge. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 135, 545–564.
Rajabizadeh, M., 2018. Snakes of Iran. IranShenasi Publishing, Tehran.
Sheykhi Ilanloo, S., Khani, A., Kafash, A., Valizadegan, N., Ashrafi, S., Loercher, F., Yousefi, M., 2021.
Applying opportunistic observations to model current and future suitability of Kopet Dagh Mountains for
Bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus). Avian Biology Research 14, 18-26.
Uetz, P., Freed, P, Aguilar, R., Hošek, J., 2023. The Reptile Database, http://www.reptile-database.org
/.
Vaissi, S., 2021. Potential changes in the distributions of Near Eastern fire salamander (Salamandra
infraimmaculata) in response to historical, recent and future climate change in the Near and Middle East:
Implication for conservation and management. Global Ecology and Conservation 29, e01730.
Vaissi, S., 2022. Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern
contraction, and elevation shifts. Scientific Reports 12, 2348.
Yousefi, M., Ahmadi, M., Nourani, E., Behrooz, R., Rajabizadeh, M., Geniez, P., Kaboli, M. 2015.
Upward altitudinal shifts in habitat suitability of mountain vipers since the Last Glacial Maximum. PLoS
One 10, e0138087.
Yousefi, M., A., Kafash, A. Khani, Nabati, N., 2020a. Applying species distribution models in public
health research by predicting snakebite risk using venomous snakes’ habitat suitability as an indicating
factor. Scientific Reports 10, 18073.
Yousefi, M., Jouladeh-Rodbar, A., Kafash, A. 2020b. Using endemic freshwater fishes as proxies of their
ecosystems to identify high priority rivers for conservation under climate change. Ecological Indicators
112, 106137.
Yousefi, M., Kafash, A., Valizadegan, N., Sheykhi Ilanloo, S., Rajabizadeh, M., Malekoutikhah, S.,
Ashrafi, S., 2019. Climate change is a major problem for biodiversity conservation: A systematic review
of recent studies in Iran. Contemporary Problems of Ecology 12, 394-403.
Yousefi, M., Mahmoudi, A., Vasii, S., Kafash, A. 2023. Diversity, diversification and distribution of
Iranian vertebrates: the legacy of mountains uplifting, past climatic oscillations, sea level fluctuations and
geographical barriers in Iran. Biodiversity and Conservation 32, 7–36